SCIH-R17
9–15 Sep 2026There was no confirmed armed incident on the Armenia-Azerbaijan line this week, but the rhetoric hardened on several fronts at once.
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NegativeSecurityEU Relations
SCIHTLP:CLEAR
South Caucasus Intelligence Hub
Armenia · Azerbaijan · Georgia
Weekly situational monitoring of the South Caucasus and the US–Russia–Iran triangle acting on it. Tracks the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, transit corridors, energy and the Russian factor.
- Scope
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia; US–Russia–Iran triangle impact on the region
- Pillars in every cycle
- 1Logistics / Transit·2Geopolitics / Security·3Russian Factor·4National Interest Vector (Slovakia)
Country profiles
Standing reference on each country in this hub. Institutions, alliances, energy, economy, open disputes and the Slovak interest vector.
Archive of cycles
Risk
14 of 14 cycles shown
SCIH-R16
1–8 Sep 2026Two structural signals dominate this cycle, both favourable to the Western vector.
Risk level: MediumSentiment: PositiveSecurityTech
SCIH-R15
25 Aug – 1 Sep 2026The cycle was dominated by the Aliyev–Pashinyan meeting on the margins of the SCO summit in Bishkek (31 Aug), where both sides reaffirmed commitment to the peace process, TRIPP implementation and border-delimitation work — continuity rather than a new…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R14
18–25 Aug 2026The cycle delivers a strategic landmark on the Russia–Armenia axis: presenting his 2026–2031 government programme to parliament on 24 August, PM Pashinyan said Armenia could lodge an EU membership application "in the near future," outlined the referendum…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: PositiveEU RelationsSecurity
SCIH-R13
11–18 Aug 2026The cycle's most consequential development sits on the Slovak vector: the US Senate passed (86–11, 7 August) the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, authorising up to 100% tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas — with…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R12
4–11 Aug 2026The cycle is anchored by the first anniversary of the 8 August 2025 Washington Peace Summit, marked by a burst of US-mediated diplomacy: Pashinyan and Trump held a phone call reaffirming their determination to begin TRIPP construction "in the near future,"…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: PositiveSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R11
28 Jul – 4 Aug 2026The cycle's central development is institutional: following Armenia's parliamentary term rollover, President Khachaturyan re-appointed Nikol Pashinyan as Prime Minister (2 August) under Article 149 of the constitution, as the new parliament convened amid an…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R10
21–28 Jul 2026The defining development of this cycle is a sharpening of the Russia–Armenia strategic contest: in a 27 July phone call, Putin pressed Pashinyan to hold a national referendum "as soon as possible" on EU versus EAEU membership, while Pashinyan conditioned any…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R9
12–21 Jul 2026The dominant signal of this cycle is the deepening of the Slovak–Azerbaijani economic-defence axis following President Pellegrini's 13–15 July state visit: Minister Saková confirmed a joint economic working group for autumn 2026, gas-supply diversification…
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralEnergySecurity
SCIH-R8
7–14 Jul 2026The dominant signal of this cycle is Aliyev's address at the 4th Shusha Global Media Forum (July 13) in which he threatened Azerbaijan's full withdrawal from the Council of Europe, demanded the complete repeal of US Section 907, and confirmed Azerbaijan is…
Risk level: HighSentiment: NegativeSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R7
30 Jun – 6 Jul 2026The dominant context of this cycle is the state funeral of Ali Khamenei (3–9 July 2026) as a geopolitical catalyst for the entire region.
Risk level: HighSentiment: NegativeSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R6
23–29 Jun 2026The week was dominated by three convergent signals: assertive U.S.
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralTRIPPEnergy
SCIH-R5
16–22 Jun 2026The monitored week was dominated by post-election consolidation in Armenia (64/105 seats for Civil Contract), growing Russian pressure on Yerevan via energy levers, and further democratic deterioration in Georgia documented by Amnesty International.
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralSecurityEU Relations
SCIH-R4
9–15 Jun 2026The monitored week confirmed the consolidation trajectory set by the Armenian election result (7 June).
Risk level: MediumSentiment: NeutralTRIPPSecurity